The current risk management practice for natural hazard risks focuses primarily on first-round effects (e.g. damages on buildings, loss of lives etc.). Higher-order effects, such as the impact on real estate market prices and their consequences are often neglected.

This project focuses on using a relatively new, simulation-based technique called Agent-Based Modelling (ABM) to model the behaviour of individuals and aggregated agents (e.g. government, regulatory authorities etc.) to gain insights into the higher-order effects. The developed toolkit will be in a gamification format that can be used for risk managers of banks to learn and improve their decision making. In this way, one can navigate through a complex problem that cannot be solved with the usual management approaches.

PhD Candidate: Marcel Bruno Fehr

Supervisory Team: Lu Zhuo, Martin Mayfield-Tulip

Project Start Date: 26th October 2020

Keywords: Natural hazards, risk assessment, ABM, human behaviour

Funding Scheme: NA